OUTLOOK 2009

India is among the top 10 countries with an optimistic economic outlook for year 2009, according to a year end poll conducted by a global market information company TNS Gallup International. Two out of five people expected the coming year to be better than 2008.

The optimistic outlook mirrors the expected growth in the various sectors including India’s Information Technology sector, which is on track to achieve its aspired target of $60 billion in software and services exports and $75 billion in overall software and services revenues by 2010. Consumer finance sector at $45 billion in India that grew by 28% last year is expected to maintain its growth with the revival of the housing loans segment owing to the government's initiative of extending lower interest rates. The healthcare sector is expected to grow to about $75 billion by 2012 from the present $35 billion market size. The sector growing at 42% annually, accounts for 5.2% of the GDP, making it the third largest growth industry in India.

The $34 billion Indian automotive sector is expected to continue to grow at more than 15% as oil prices dip and companies announce the launch of new vehicles. The world's fastest-growing mobile phone market that adds more than 9 million new customers each month is driving the $31 billion telecom industry to be worth $54 billion in 2012. See ‘Special Report’ on the Indian Telecommunication sector.

Domestic growth is expected to attract and benefit from foreign direct investment (FDI) of $40 billion in the next financial year, which is twice the amount received during the first half of the current financial year.

Such growth forecasts, however, are accompanied by challenges that might just derail the country from its growth trajectory. These include internal pressure groups as in the case of the Indo-U.S. nuclear agreement that witnessed intense opposition by the Left Parties within India’s ruling coalition government called the United Progressive Alliance (UPA). Similarly, the delay in the small car project of Tata Motors’ ‘Nano’ due to widespread unrest from a regional political party led to the project being scrapped from its original site in Singur, in the east Indian state of West Bengal compounds existing impediments of slow infrastructure development, widespread illiteracy, poverty and corruption - impediments India must overcome if it wants to sustain and accelerate its economic growth.