Infosys: Floating with the Tide
Under normal circumstances, the hedge against currency fluctuations by Infosys Technologies Ltd., would have worked just fine. The appreciation of the rupee versus the dollar in the past quarter, however, has been so significant that Infosys, India’s second largest information technology services exporter, had to lower its revenue and earnings guidance for 2007-08 in rupee terms even as it increased its guidance for both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) in dollar terms.
For the first quarter ended June 2007, the negative impact of rupee appreciation on its revenue has been estimated at 7.9%, and the company could post sequentially flat revenue only because the impact of rupee appreciation was offset by volume growth and improvement in billing rates. Improved utilisation and better pricing, however, couldn’t completely offset the dent in EBIDTA margin, which declined by 300 basis points (bps) to 28.7% in the quarter of April-June 2007.
Infosys had no option but to float with the tide as the Indian currency gained 6.8% against the dollar during the April-June 2007 quarter. Going forward, however, Infosys and Indian IT companies in general are not headed for any serious trouble as the demand outlook for these companies continue to be robust. Even in the first quarter of this fiscal, Infosys has added 35 new clients, and won three large deals worth more than $50 million each. By the end of the current fiscal, Infosys will be have about 100,000 employees as it plans to add 26,000 employees during 2007-08.
Outsourcing: Europe on the Move
The robust demand for the IT industry can be gauged from the fact that the total value of new outsourcing contracts in €40 million-plus bracket increased by 78% in the first half of 2007 compared with the same period last year, according to a report by outsourcing advisory firm TPI Inc. With this increased activity, Europe now accounts for more than half (54%) of new outsourcing contracts signed globally compared with 32% share registered in the previous year.
The new figures carry two important messages with regard to the Indian IT services companies. First, they naturally benefit from the trend among European companies to opt for more outsourcing. Second, increased Euro-earnings would de-risk the Indian IT companies from the volatility in the rupee-dollar exchange rate. While Indian companies have made serious attempts to penetrate the European market in the past, the U.S. market account for a majority of their earnings. With increased receptiveness in Europe, they clearly need to increase their European presence. Going forward, we can see increased merger and acquisition activities by Indian IT firms in the European market, aimed at obtaining geographical reach and customer access.
Europe is Top FDI in India
The European Union is one the largest trade and investment partners of India. The EU is India’s largest source of foreign direct investment (FDI) and accounted for 25.3% of total FDI inflows between August 1991 and December 2006. Similarly, the country’s exports to the EU stood at $23.8 billion in the eleven months from April 2006 to February 2007 and accounted for 21% of its total exports. India’s imports from the EU during the same period stood at $24 billion and accounted for 15% of its total imports, as highlighted by India’s Finance Minister P. Chidambaram at the India Europe Investment Forum in London in the last week of June 2007.
While these figures look encouraging at the first glance, the flip side of the same tells us that the despite all the excitement around the India story, the country ranks much lower in the list of EU’s preferred FDI destinations than one would have anticipated. India received only 0.3% of the EU’s worldwide investments and ranked 18th in the list of EU’s preferred FDI destinations. Clearly, that leaves a large scope for increasing the FDI inflow from Europe to India.
Bundeep Singh Rangar
Chairman, IndusView
www.indusview.com
Showing posts with label IndusView. Show all posts
Showing posts with label IndusView. Show all posts
Saturday, July 28, 2007
Saturday, June 09, 2007
The IndusView Publication - Volume 3, Issue 7
Indian Airspace: More Planes, Fewer Names
Market dynamics can create strange bedfellows. Kingfisher Airlines, a subsidiary of UB Group, India's largest alcoholic spirits manufacturer is looking to acquire Deccan Aviation, India’s top low-cost carrier to become India’s largest airline with a 34% market share. The transaction will bring together two contrasting companies. Kingfisher, run by Vijay Mallya, India’s flamboyant entrepreneur often compared with the U.K.’s Richard Branson and Air Deccan founded by Capt. G. R. Gopinath, a former Indian Army Officer who popularized low-cost air travel in India.
The merger follows the recent acquisition of Air Sahara by Jet Airways, until now, India’s largest private sector airline with a 32% market share, and the merger of two state owned carriers Air India and Indian – to create the National Aviation Company of India (NACIL).
The wave of airline consolidation we first predicted in Vol3 | Issue 5 clearly continues.
Wireless Telecoms: Size Matters
Consolidation also continues in the wireless sector, evident from the expected merger of Idea Cellular Ltd owned by Aditya Birla Group, one of India's largest diversified conglomerates, with Spice Telecom, which is 49% owned by South East Asia’s second largest phone company Telekom Malaysia Bhd.
Idea Cellular and Spice Telecom will have a combined subscriber base of 17.3 million in 11 circles making it the fifth largest mobile operator, surpassing Tata Teleservices Ltd, part of the Tata group, India's largest private sector business group.
The world’s fastest growing mobile phone market, which is expected to more than double to 348 million subscribers by 2010 has undergone consolidation worth more than $12 billion in transaction value so far this year compared with $2 billion last year. The most significant deal has been the acquisition of Hutchison Essar Ltd, second largest GSM mobile service provider, by the U.K.’s Vodafone Group Plc.
Real Estate: Billion Dollar Opportunities
General Electric Company (GE), the world’s second largest company by market value, is boosting its commitment to India’s real estate market by allocating $2 billion for real estate projects such as townships, special economic zones (SEZs), information technology (IT) parks, retail and residential developments.
Industry experts forecast demand, precipitated by India’s burgeoning Information Technology (IT) industry, for as many as 80 million housing units over the next 15 years and 200 million square feet in office space in the next five years.
More insight into India’s property market can be gotten from the Company Watch section of this issue where we’ve profiled DLF Ltd, India’s largest real estate developer slated to have the country’s largest initial public offering (IPO) when it lists $3 billion worth of new shares this month.
Bundeep Singh Rangar
Chairman, IndusView
Bundeep.Rangar@IndusView.com
www.indusview.com
www.rangar.com
Market dynamics can create strange bedfellows. Kingfisher Airlines, a subsidiary of UB Group, India's largest alcoholic spirits manufacturer is looking to acquire Deccan Aviation, India’s top low-cost carrier to become India’s largest airline with a 34% market share. The transaction will bring together two contrasting companies. Kingfisher, run by Vijay Mallya, India’s flamboyant entrepreneur often compared with the U.K.’s Richard Branson and Air Deccan founded by Capt. G. R. Gopinath, a former Indian Army Officer who popularized low-cost air travel in India.
The merger follows the recent acquisition of Air Sahara by Jet Airways, until now, India’s largest private sector airline with a 32% market share, and the merger of two state owned carriers Air India and Indian – to create the National Aviation Company of India (NACIL).
The wave of airline consolidation we first predicted in Vol3 | Issue 5 clearly continues.
Wireless Telecoms: Size Matters
Consolidation also continues in the wireless sector, evident from the expected merger of Idea Cellular Ltd owned by Aditya Birla Group, one of India's largest diversified conglomerates, with Spice Telecom, which is 49% owned by South East Asia’s second largest phone company Telekom Malaysia Bhd.
Idea Cellular and Spice Telecom will have a combined subscriber base of 17.3 million in 11 circles making it the fifth largest mobile operator, surpassing Tata Teleservices Ltd, part of the Tata group, India's largest private sector business group.
The world’s fastest growing mobile phone market, which is expected to more than double to 348 million subscribers by 2010 has undergone consolidation worth more than $12 billion in transaction value so far this year compared with $2 billion last year. The most significant deal has been the acquisition of Hutchison Essar Ltd, second largest GSM mobile service provider, by the U.K.’s Vodafone Group Plc.
Real Estate: Billion Dollar Opportunities
General Electric Company (GE), the world’s second largest company by market value, is boosting its commitment to India’s real estate market by allocating $2 billion for real estate projects such as townships, special economic zones (SEZs), information technology (IT) parks, retail and residential developments.
Industry experts forecast demand, precipitated by India’s burgeoning Information Technology (IT) industry, for as many as 80 million housing units over the next 15 years and 200 million square feet in office space in the next five years.
More insight into India’s property market can be gotten from the Company Watch section of this issue where we’ve profiled DLF Ltd, India’s largest real estate developer slated to have the country’s largest initial public offering (IPO) when it lists $3 billion worth of new shares this month.
Bundeep Singh Rangar
Chairman, IndusView
Bundeep.Rangar@IndusView.com
www.indusview.com
www.rangar.com
Thursday, May 24, 2007
The IndusView Publication - Volume 3, Issue 6
Genpact IPO on NYSE
Genpact Ltd, India’s largest Business Process Outsourcing firm is expected to reach a market capitalization of about $3 billion, when it lists on the New York Stock Exchange later this year. That valuation is based on that of its peers, WNS (Holdings) Ltd and ExlService Holdings, which have already listed on U.S. exchanges.
The public offering will provide a healthy return to its principal investors, Oak Hill and General Atlantic, which invested $800 million for a 60% stake in the company two years ago. The remaining 40% is held by General Electric, which started Genpact as an in-house offshore facility 10 years ago.
IT: A $100 Billion Industry
India’s information technology (IT) and IT-enabled Services (ITeS) industry will be worth $100 billion by 2011 from about $48 billion in 2006, according to a report by IDC India, the Indian affiliate of Massachusetts-based market research firm IDC. The report suggests that the Indian IT industry will register a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18% during these five years.
The estimate, however, seems conservative considering the 31% growth rate marked by the Indian IT industry in 2006. The industry, which has grown more than 30% annually for the past four years, according to the National Association of Software and Service Companies (NASSCOM), the industry body representing more than 1,100 Indian IT companies.
The IDC report suggested rising domestic sales, previously a weak segment. IDC forecasts IT & ITeS sales in India will grow at a CAGR of 20% to $41 billion in 2011 from $17 billion in 2006.
Indian Contenders
Indian companies are apparently better positioned to challenge the global blue-chip companies. Rating agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P) annual ‘Global Challengers List’ included eight Indian companies out of the 300 firms listed from 37 countries, compared with four companies from China. The list that identifies mid-size public listed companies exhibiting the strongest growth characteristics includes ACC Ltd., one of the oldest manufacturer of cement and ready mix concrete; Hotel Leela Venture Ltd, an Indian hotel company that owns four deluxe hotel in the cities of Mumbai, Bangalore, Kovalam and Goa; Jain Irrigation Systems Ltd, the country’s largest manufacturer of irrigation systems, pipes and fittings; Lakshmi Machine Works Ltd, one of the world’s leading manufacturers of textile spinning machinery; Marico Industries, one of the leading FMCG companies; Titan Industries, the world's sixth largest wrist watch manufacturer and part of the Tata Group, India's largest private sector business group; The Indian Hotels Company Ltd, a part of the Tata Group that operates Taj Hotels chain of luxury hotels.
Oil Tips a Perfect Balance
If India could discard its oil import bill, it will reach a perfect trade balance. During the fiscal year 2006-07, India's exports grew by 24% to reach at $125 billion, while non-oil imports increased to $124 billion from $99.5 billion during the same period. Its trade deficit, however, widened to $57 billion from $40 billion only due to the crude oil imports bill that rose by the same amount, i.e. $57 billion in 2006-07 from $44 billion in the previous year.
With the Indian economy estimated to grow at the rate of 8%-10% per annum in the coming years, the oil import bill will only increase as demand for energy rises to 200 Giga Watts by 2012 from the current installed capacity of 125 Giga Watts. It makes a clear case for large investments in alternative energy sources such as wind energy, nuclear energy and solar energy. Wind energy has added about 6,000 megawatts of power supply in the past five years, and it is estimated to create additional capacity of about 8,500 megawatts by 2012.
Large oil and gas discoveries announced by Reliance Industries Ltd., country's most valuable firm with a market value of $37.2 billion and Cairn India Ltd, subsidiary of Edinburgh, Scotland based Cairn Energy Plc strengthen India’s efforts to reduce dependence on oil imports.
Bundeep Singh Rangar
Chairman, IndusView
Bundeep.Rangar@IndusView.com
www.indusview.com
www.indusreal.com
Genpact Ltd, India’s largest Business Process Outsourcing firm is expected to reach a market capitalization of about $3 billion, when it lists on the New York Stock Exchange later this year. That valuation is based on that of its peers, WNS (Holdings) Ltd and ExlService Holdings, which have already listed on U.S. exchanges.
The public offering will provide a healthy return to its principal investors, Oak Hill and General Atlantic, which invested $800 million for a 60% stake in the company two years ago. The remaining 40% is held by General Electric, which started Genpact as an in-house offshore facility 10 years ago.
IT: A $100 Billion Industry
India’s information technology (IT) and IT-enabled Services (ITeS) industry will be worth $100 billion by 2011 from about $48 billion in 2006, according to a report by IDC India, the Indian affiliate of Massachusetts-based market research firm IDC. The report suggests that the Indian IT industry will register a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18% during these five years.
The estimate, however, seems conservative considering the 31% growth rate marked by the Indian IT industry in 2006. The industry, which has grown more than 30% annually for the past four years, according to the National Association of Software and Service Companies (NASSCOM), the industry body representing more than 1,100 Indian IT companies.
The IDC report suggested rising domestic sales, previously a weak segment. IDC forecasts IT & ITeS sales in India will grow at a CAGR of 20% to $41 billion in 2011 from $17 billion in 2006.
Indian Contenders
Indian companies are apparently better positioned to challenge the global blue-chip companies. Rating agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P) annual ‘Global Challengers List’ included eight Indian companies out of the 300 firms listed from 37 countries, compared with four companies from China. The list that identifies mid-size public listed companies exhibiting the strongest growth characteristics includes ACC Ltd., one of the oldest manufacturer of cement and ready mix concrete; Hotel Leela Venture Ltd, an Indian hotel company that owns four deluxe hotel in the cities of Mumbai, Bangalore, Kovalam and Goa; Jain Irrigation Systems Ltd, the country’s largest manufacturer of irrigation systems, pipes and fittings; Lakshmi Machine Works Ltd, one of the world’s leading manufacturers of textile spinning machinery; Marico Industries, one of the leading FMCG companies; Titan Industries, the world's sixth largest wrist watch manufacturer and part of the Tata Group, India's largest private sector business group; The Indian Hotels Company Ltd, a part of the Tata Group that operates Taj Hotels chain of luxury hotels.
Oil Tips a Perfect Balance
If India could discard its oil import bill, it will reach a perfect trade balance. During the fiscal year 2006-07, India's exports grew by 24% to reach at $125 billion, while non-oil imports increased to $124 billion from $99.5 billion during the same period. Its trade deficit, however, widened to $57 billion from $40 billion only due to the crude oil imports bill that rose by the same amount, i.e. $57 billion in 2006-07 from $44 billion in the previous year.
With the Indian economy estimated to grow at the rate of 8%-10% per annum in the coming years, the oil import bill will only increase as demand for energy rises to 200 Giga Watts by 2012 from the current installed capacity of 125 Giga Watts. It makes a clear case for large investments in alternative energy sources such as wind energy, nuclear energy and solar energy. Wind energy has added about 6,000 megawatts of power supply in the past five years, and it is estimated to create additional capacity of about 8,500 megawatts by 2012.
Large oil and gas discoveries announced by Reliance Industries Ltd., country's most valuable firm with a market value of $37.2 billion and Cairn India Ltd, subsidiary of Edinburgh, Scotland based Cairn Energy Plc strengthen India’s efforts to reduce dependence on oil imports.
Bundeep Singh Rangar
Chairman, IndusView
Bundeep.Rangar@IndusView.com
www.indusview.com
www.indusreal.com
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